Martin Burcharths blog

Fire ud af ti vælgere støtter Tea Party

Resultaterne fra Indiana og Kentucky drypper langsomt ind. Stemmeoptællingen tager længere end ventet. Men efter optælling af 1 pct. af stemmerne i Kentucky ligger Tea Party-favorit Rand Paul i senatsvalget foran med 56 pct.

Så her kommer i stedet nyheder baseret på exit polls.

Exit polls er "the real thing" - langt mere pålidelige end meningsmålinger. Associated Press er netop kommet med sit exit poll, og her er hovedpointerne:

Kun 25 pct. lægger skylden for den økonomiske krise på præsident Obama, men 50 pct. er overbevist om, at hans økonomiske politik vil gøre situationen værre. Det er relativt gode nyheder for Obama. Dersom økonomien forbedrer sig i de næste par år, er der masser af plads til at score ekstra points.

Et andet interessant resultat. Vælgerne er lige så sure på Demokrater som på Republikanere. Ikke en særlig opløftende nyhed for Republikanerne. Hele 80 pct. af vælgerne er ikke overraskende bekymret over USA's økonomiske fremtid.

Men det helt sensationelle og virkeligt foruroligende for Demokraterne og den Republikanske partitop er, at 4 ud af hver 10. vælger støtter Tea Party-bevægelsens idéer. Det betyder, at næsten alle Republikanske vælgere og mange partiuafhængige er hoppet på den vogn.

Wall Street Journal tolker "exit polls" yderligere og finder, at flere kvinder og amerikanere med en mellemindkomst har stemt på Republikanere. Avisens tal peger på en sikker sejr til Republikanerne. Ingen vej udenom.

 

Exit Polls 2010: See The Results

First Posted: 11- 2-10 04:45 PM   |   Updated: 11- 2-10 05:49 PM

See exit poll reports below, or scroll down for a guide on how to read them (and why to treat them with great skepticism)

WASHINGTON – Voters across the nation Tuesday said they were intensely worried about the future of the economy and unhappy with the way President Barack Obama and Congress are running things.

Voters in overwhelming numbers were dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working and majorities disapproved of both the Republican and Democratic parties, according to an Associated Press analysis of preliminary exit poll results and pre-election polls.

Voters say the economy eclipses any other issue.

About a third say their household suffered a job loss in the past two years, but that didn't give a clear direction to their voting. They divided over which party to support in Tuesday's House races.

About four in 10 say they are worse off financially than they were two years ago. More than 80 percent said they were worried about the direction of the economy over the next year.

Only about a quarter of voters in Tuesday's House races blamed Obama for the nation's economic troubles. But about half think Obama's policies will hurt the country.

About four out of 10 voters said they support the tea party movement, and they overwhelmingly voted Republican.

The preliminary results are from interviews that Edison Research conducted for The Associated Press and television networks with more than 11,000 voters nationwide. This included 9,525 interviews Tuesday in a random sample of 268 precincts nationally. In addition, landline and cellular telephone interviews were conducted Oct. 22-31 with 1,600 people who voted early or absentee.

There is a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

Foto: Scanpix

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